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When prehistoric man arrived in new parts of the world, something strange happened to the large animals: they suddenly became extinct. Smaller species survived. The large, slow- growing animals were easy game, and were quickly hunted to extinction. Now something similar could be happening in the oceans.That the seas are being overfished has been known for years. What researchers such as Ransom Myers and Boris Worm have shown is just how fast things are changing. They have looked at half a century of data from fisheries around the world. Their methods do not attempt to estimate the actual biomass（the amount of living biological matter）of fish species in particular parts of the ocean, but rather changes in that biomass over time. According to their latest paper published in Nature, the biomass of large predators（animals that kill and eat other animals）in a new fishery is reduced on average by 80% within 15 years of the start of exploitation. In some long-fished areas, it has halved again since then.Dr. Worm acknowledges that these figures are conservative. One reason for this is that fishing technology has improved. Today’s vessels can find their prey using satellites and sonar, which were not available 50 years ago. That means a higher proportion of what is in the sea is being caught, so the real difference between present and past is likely to be worse than the one recorded by changes in catch sizes. In the early days, too, longlines would have been more saturated with fish. Some individuals would therefore not have been caught, since no baited hooks would have been available to trap them, leading to an underestimate of fish stocks in the past. Furthermore, in the early days of longline fishing, a lot of fish were lost to sharks after they had been hooked. That is no longer a problem, because there are fewer sharks around now.Dr. Myers and Dr. Worm argue that their work gives a correct baseline, which future management efforts must take into account. They believe the date support an idea current among marine biologists, that of the “shifting baseline”. The notion is that people have failed to detect the massive changes which have happened in the ocean because they have been looking back only a relatively short time into the past. That matters because theory suggests that the maximum sustainable yield that can be cropped from a fishery comes when the biomass of a target species is about 50%"of its original levels. Most fisheries are well below that, which is a bad way to be business.1. The writer mentions the extinction of large prehistoric animals to suggest that（）.2. It can be inferred from Dr. Myers and Dr. Worm’s paper that（）.3. Dr. Worm’s comment of “these figures are conservative”（Line 1, Paragraph 3）means（）.4. Dr. Myers and other researchers maintain that（）.5. The author seems to be mainly concerned with most fisheries’（）.

Wild Bill Donovan would have loved the Internet. The American spymaster who built the Office of Strategic Services in the World War II and later laid the roots for the CIA was fascinated with information. Donovan believed in using whatever tools came to hand in the "great game" of espionage — spying as a "profession". These days the Net, which has already re-made such everyday pastimes as buying books and sending mail, is reshaping Donovan's vocation as well.The latest revolution isn't simply a matter of gentlemen reading other gentlemen's e-mail. That kind of electronic spying has been going on for decades. In the past three or four years, the World Wide Web has given birth to a whole industry of point-and-click spying. The spooks call it "open-source intelligence", and as the Net grows, it is becoming increasingly influential. In 1995 the CIA held a contest to see who could compile the most data about Burundi. The winner, by a large margin, was a tiny Virginia company called Open Source Solutions, whose clear advantage was its .merely of the electronic world.Among the firms making the biggest splash in this new world is Straitford, Inc., a private intelligence-analysis firm based in Austin, Texas. Straitford makes money by selling the results of spying（covering-nations from Chile to RussiA. to corporations like energy-services firm McDermott International. Many of its predictions are available online at www. straitford .com.Straitford president George Friedman says he sees the online world as a kind of mutually reinforcing tool for both information collection and distribution, a spymaster's dream. Last week his firm was busy vacuuming up data bits from the far corners of the world and predicting a crisis in Ukraine. "As soon as that report runs, we'll suddenly get 500 new Internet sign-ups from Ukraine," says Friedman, a former political science professor. "And we'll hear back from some of them." Open-source spying does have its risks, of course, since it can be difficult to tell good information from bad. That's where Straitford earns its keep. Friedman relies on a lean staff of 20 in Austin. Several of his staff members have military- intelligence backgrounds. He sees the firm's outsider status as the key to its success. Straitford's briefs don't sound like the usual Washington back-and-forthing, whereby agencies chance they might be wrong. Straitford, says Friedman, takes pride in its independent voice.1. The emergence of the Net has（）.2. The text mentions Donovan's story to（）.3. The most probable meaning of "making the biggest splash"（Line 1, Paragraph 3）is（）.4. Paragraph 4 suggests that（）.5. Straitford is most proud of its（）.

Up until a few decades ago, our visions of-the future were largely - though by no means uniformly-glowingly positive. Science and technology would cure all the ills of humanity, leading to lives of fulfillment and opportunity for all.Now utopia has grown unfashionable, as we have gained a deeper appreciation of the range of threats facing us, from asteroid strike to epidemic flu and to climate change. You might even be tempted to assume that humanity has little future to look forward to.But such gloominess is misplaced. The fossil record shows that many species have endured for millions of years - so why shouldn't we? Take a broader look at our species' place in the universe, and it becomes clear that we have an excellent chance of surviving for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years. Look up Homo sapiens in the "Red List" of threatened species of the International Union for the Conversation of Nature（IUCN）, and you will read: "Listed as Least Concern, as the species is .very widely distributed, adaptable, currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall population decline."So what does our deep future hold? A growing number of researchers and organizations are now thinking seriously about that question. For example, the Long Now Foundation has its flagship project a medical clock that is designed to still be marking time thousands of years hence.Perhaps willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future. The potential evolution of today's technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it's perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage. That's one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.But take a longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable assurance. As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.This long perspective makes the pessimistic View of our prospects seem more likely to be a passing fad. To be sure, the future is not all rosy. But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.1. We used to have a positive vision of the future because of（）.2. According to the IUCN’s “Red List”, human being（）.3. Paragraph 5 suggest that（）.4. To ensure the future of mankind, it is crucial to（）.5. The best title for the text would be（）.

（）as planned depends on the weather.

（）the help of his rich uncle, he could not be living a wealthy life today.

I thought the children（）when we returned home, but they were still awake.

“Under no circumstances（）the senate’s raising the debt ceiling with just 50 votes.” The senator said, insisting meaningful spending reforms before raising the debt ceiling.

China's first set of regulations on human organ transplant, which prohibits organizations and individuals from trading human organs in any form,（）on May lst, 2007.

Business tourism is very lucrative as business travelers have a higher spend than leisure tourists, which（）creates more jobs.

According to the Ghana National Narcotic Control Board（NACOB., almost four thousand Ghanaian are（）illicit drugs while several others are reported to be engaged in constant drug trafficking annually.

Secretary Of State Kerry said that it’s important for people in the world not to（）alleged terrorists but to underscore the importance of the rule of law.

For years Kaufer, an associate professor at U.C. Berkeley, has been working on how stress affects the brain and body, and the complexity of the（）instinct to fight or flee.

Actress Amanda Bynes was convicted of（）driving in April 2012 when she crashed into an L.A. County sheriffs deputy's cruiser.

The Department of Transportation and Communications（DOTC. will proceed with the（）of 48 new Light Rail Vehicles（LRV）for the Metro Rail Transit（MRT）.

In New Zealand, experts are putting forward suggestions to reduce sugar sweetened（）consumption, claiming that it may contain unhealthy amounts of sugar.

Colorado state lawmakers will debate a bill, which will treat cyber-bullying as（）.

A 2005 study by the International Journal of Oncology suggested that extract from gac fruit may（）the growth of some cancers.

They have launched a campaign to get online ticketing companies to（）added costs to customers when buying tickets.

Salary increases are useful to retain and employees, and（）are also a method of recognizing the employee's contribution to a company.

The European union, in particular, Germany, are searching opportunities to help Ukraine（）its economy.

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